Tnothcote
0x063ed952ab84272904467c5a6add3b5be81048d3
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $210.2k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.840Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.967Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$277.53at 0.809US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
- +$179.99at 0.832Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
- +$177.86at 0.830Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 16:28 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 18:42 | Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West? | BUY | 0.2647058808 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 18:41 | Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West? | BUY | 0.2599999964 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 03:37 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 03:35 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 01:48 | Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West? | BUY | 0.3261914455 | $300.00 |
| 08-26 01:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.6299999988 | $500.00 |
| 08-26 01:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.6299999996 | $500.00 |
| 08-26 01:20 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $603.89 |
| 08-26 01:19 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $201.30 |
| 08-26 01:19 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $268.40 |
| 08-26 01:15 | Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 08-24 14:47 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 08-24 14:43 | Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0509999494 | $1.00 |
| 08-24 14:42 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |