0x05fcf70a4d3E5Ac55235fC47341f96d2DA477adA-1748123582077
0x05fcf70a4d3e5ac55235fc47341f96d2da477ada
- Realised P&L
- $247.13
- Volume
- $15.7k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.621 | 0.935 | $563.79 | +$189.61 |
| Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? · Yes | 0.845 | 0.835 | $425.15 | −$4.85 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.575 | 0.567 | $49.26 | −$0.74 |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · No | 0.825 | 0.790 | $47.90 | −$2.10 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.835 | $27.22 | +$1.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.34at 0.876Polish snap election called in 2025?
- +$39.93at 0.834Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$36.95at 0.735Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$34.53at 0.650Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
- +$29.38at 0.780NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 21:10 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | BUY | 0.824690445 | $50.00 |
| 09-25 21:04 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5749999983 | $50.00 |
| 09-25 21:04 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $105.28 |
| 09-25 20:56 | Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | BUY | 0.8467432942 | $130.00 |
| 09-25 20:56 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $41.12 |
| 09-25 20:56 | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | SELL | 0.9230224743 | $43.95 |
| 09-25 20:56 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $35.41 |
| 09-25 20:55 | Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | BUY | 0.843570865 | $300.00 |
| 09-25 20:53 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.964 | $49.29 |
| 09-25 20:53 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.9716210847 | $264.60 |
| 06-02 11:39 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $88.48 |
| 05-26 08:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $20.99 |
| 05-26 08:09 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY | 0.6899999952 | $20.00 |
| 05-26 08:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $41.25 |
| 05-26 08:08 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $20.79 |