KingLurch
0x05504ab11bf87cdbbbacb1b18d4abd5d5fb7c0f3
- Realised P&L
- $-224.00
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $26.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? · Yes | 0.722 | 0.375 | $23.75 | −$21.99 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.028 | $2.75 | −$7.25 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.40 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? · No | 0.338 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.30 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? · No | 0.508 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.82 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? · No | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.84at 0.575US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$8.26at 0.420Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
- +$7.90at 0.605US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
- +$6.89at 0.420US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$4.10at 0.590Paul vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 11:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | BUY | 0.7221063986 | $45.74 |
| 09-20 04:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $34.43 |
| 08-05 23:40 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.4199999646 | $4.99 |
| 08-05 23:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 04:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 06-15 01:23 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.1699999817 | $6.40 |
| 06-14 22:49 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.56 |
| 06-13 21:10 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999922 | $26.00 |
| 06-13 21:09 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.3379721591 | $25.00 |
| 06-13 21:08 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.579999983 | $30.00 |
| 06-13 21:08 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999934 | $30.00 |
| 05-18 20:12 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | BUY | 0.5753131239 | $9.82 |
| 05-04 12:21 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.309999997 | $46.62 |
| 05-04 12:21 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-02 10:17 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | BUY | 0.5499999847 | $9.00 |