SatoshiFan87
0x04e3dfc8a8f5d76e02a3d0c33d9753c072d4c6c3
- Realised P&L
- $-48.46
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $3.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.037 | $3.68 | −$7.12 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.030 | $0.03 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.11at 0.510XRP Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET
- +$7.89at 0.500XRP Up or Down - December 26, 12AM ET
- +$6.34at 0.510XRP Up or Down - January 3, 9AM ET
- +$5.01at 0.390Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?
- +$4.84at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 23:24 | Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.2 | $7.80 |
| 09-17 23:01 | Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | SELL | 0.4067430883 | $6.03 |
| 09-17 23:01 | Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | SELL | 0.42 | $12.60 |
| 09-16 00:16 | Will Yash Patel win Big Brother season 28? | SELL | 0.204 | $9.79 |
| 09-14 07:47 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.05 |
| 09-10 23:19 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | SELL | 0.39 | $20.98 |
| 08-20 01:25 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.2 | $11.10 |
| 07-16 05:54 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $19.80 |
| 07-09 22:27 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.76 |
| 07-09 22:02 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 11? | SELL | 0.6886848635 | $11.10 |
| 07-09 19:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 11? | SELL | 0.51 | $2.79 |
| 07-09 19:06 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.179500285 | $9.45 |
| 07-06 20:56 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 7? | SELL | 0.76 | $3.16 |
| 07-05 04:43 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 6? | SELL | 0.6771980676 | $19.63 |
| 07-05 04:22 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 6? | SELL | 0.65 | $19.70 |