Sjs8282
0x04d4a5eaef945f345726710562ee0d0d4503d93d
- Realised P&L
- $-116.88
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $112.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.963 | $105.64 | +$15.64 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.979 | $6.75 | +$0.75 |
| United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 · Under | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$74.68 |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance · Norway | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Spain? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.77at 0.057Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?
- +$66.66at 0.133Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
- +$66.22at 0.072Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?
- +$65.36at 0.123Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?
- +$44.87at 0.103Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 12:42 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999971 | $6.00 |
| 08-11 05:41 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 12? | BUY | 0.9699999968 | $6.00 |
| 08-11 05:34 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? | BUY | 0.8199999993 | $90.00 |
| 08-11 05:33 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.06 |
| 07-11 21:45 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.9669999999 | $70.00 |
| 07-11 21:44 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5599999462 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 21:33 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.9829999999 | $79.00 |
| 07-09 21:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.82 | $75.23 |
| 07-09 21:32 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.61 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 19:00 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.8199999987 | $74.68 |
| 07-06 15:56 | Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 15:55 | Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Spain? | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 15:55 | Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 01:44 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 England? | SELL | 0.19 | $10.55 |
| 07-06 01:41 | Will England win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.8599999997 | $58.00 |