Red781RuM
0x04bf21c2527ae8d54a2f713a6420c608366c7caf
- Realised P&L
- $40.2k
- Volume
- $1.63M
- Markets traded
- 1,051
- Open portfolio
- $67.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,051
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.8kat 0.173Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
- +$7.2kat 0.247Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
- +$6.4kat 0.398Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?
- +$4.0kat 0.352Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
- +$3.9kat 0.200Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:11 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $730.04 |
| 09-17 10:05 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.8175338645 | $451.44 |
| 09-14 23:17 | Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.79 | $265.93 |
| 09-14 20:41 | Will PCQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.8497474028 | $341.08 |
| 09-10 07:50 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.79 | $79.00 |
| 09-09 08:44 | Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.48 | $468.20 |
| 09-09 07:45 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.45528816 | $227.64 |
| 09-09 07:39 | LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.73 | $365.00 |
| 09-09 07:37 | Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m? | BUY | 0.78 | $390.00 |
| 09-09 05:42 | Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $72.16 |
| 09-07 21:39 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.71 | $181.66 |
| 09-07 21:38 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.69 | $270.71 |
| 09-07 21:21 | Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? | BUY | 0.44 | $152.99 |
| 09-07 21:14 | Will Nathalie Roy win the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election? | BUY | 0.25 | $75.00 |
| 09-07 21:13 | Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election? | BUY | 0.63 | $57.44 |