Red781RuM
0x04bf21c2527ae8d54a2f713a6420c608366c7caf
- Realised P&L
- $42.5k
- Volume
- $1.57M
- Markets traded
- 1,002
- Open portfolio
- $67.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,002
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.8kat 0.173Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
- +$7.2kat 0.247Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
- +$6.4kat 0.398Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?
- +$4.0kat 0.352Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
- +$3.9kat 0.200Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:52 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.228 | $34.20 |
| 08-02 20:43 | Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | BUY | 0.41 | $6.92 |
| 08-02 20:26 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.2 | $24.20 |
| 08-02 20:25 | Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | BUY | 0.41 | $143.50 |
| 08-02 20:13 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $8.76 |
| 08-02 20:10 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $159.20 |
| 08-02 20:07 | Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $23.99 |
| 08-02 19:46 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | BUY | 0.88 | $440.00 |
| 08-02 19:42 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $36.06 |
| 08-02 08:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.12 | $30.00 |
| 08-02 08:47 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.43 | $66.65 |
| 08-01 03:47 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.66 | $6.31 |
| 07-31 18:48 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? | BUY | 0.19 | $61.37 |
| 07-31 04:10 | Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8189172345 | $155.05 |
| 07-31 04:09 | Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $455.70 |