goingsocial
0x04902c7046da0f93f29d070b00f9366a165ac81f
- Realised P&L
- $38.0k
- Volume
- $7.12M
- Markets traded
- 575
- Open portfolio
- $13.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded575
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.086 | $4.7k | +$174.55 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.875 | $4.3k | +$416.60 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.555 | 0.695 | $4.2k | +$840.53 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · No | 0.230 | 0.021 | $120.42 | −$1.2k |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.232 | 0.022 | $117.60 | −$1.1k |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? · No | 0.310 | 0.455 | $57.94 | +$18.46 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.048 | $16.70 | +$4.40 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$528.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.5kat 0.049Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$17.8kat 0.466Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election?
- +$17.7kat 0.668Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$14.0kat 0.055Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?
- +$13.6kat 0.268Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 12:11 | Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $39.49 |
| 07-27 12:10 | Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.1590328574 | $421.14 |
| 07-21 21:36 | Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $29.62 |
| 07-21 21:36 | Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1083208769 | $241.28 |
| 07-21 21:36 | Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.115 | $3.98 |
| 07-14 08:24 | Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.5k |
| 07-14 08:23 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.0515532286 | $360.87 |
| 07-13 21:50 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.2320877721 | $1.2k |
| 07-13 21:49 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.3k |
| 07-12 21:39 | Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.71 |
| 07-12 21:37 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.0769808529 | $538.87 |
| 07-10 01:54 | Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.7165752512 | $2.1k |
| 06-22 01:57 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.5548112833 | $3.3k |
| 06-21 04:35 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? | BUY | 0.301858748 | $1.9k |
| 06-18 23:54 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? | BUY | 0.4842857143 | $50.85 |