Predictor48
0x04419d64260ebe2202736676380ba40d982e194c
- Realised P&L
- $-4.6k
- Volume
- $1.08M
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $7.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.069US military action against Iran by Saturday?
- +$289.94at 0.126US military action against Iran by Sunday?
- +$55.52at 0.467Another US military action against Iran by June 30?
- +$55.34at 0.830Another US military action against Iran by Monday?
- +$52.43at 0.522Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 20:28 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.006 | $27.59 |
| 07-02 20:32 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.008 | $30.71 |
| 05-29 21:56 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.01 | $67.56 |
| 03-21 12:08 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.5k |
| 03-13 01:10 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $141.90 |
| 03-12 00:29 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $120.00 |
| 03-12 00:29 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.012 | $120.00 |
| 03-12 00:24 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.4k |
| 03-11 12:52 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $171.97 |
| 03-07 01:20 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.013 | $2.0k |
| 02-15 03:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.53 | $24.65 |
| 02-15 03:53 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $20.00 |
| 02-15 03:50 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.43 |
| 02-15 03:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.44 | $8.53 |
| 02-15 03:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | SELL | 0.78 | $30.71 |