not-immutal
0x043f5ed8b55795c681c855330f6931ae112a1b07
- Realised P&L
- $-222.31
- Volume
- $21.3k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $351.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.157 | $82.04 | +$34.86 |
| Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.186 | $67.14 | +$13.86 |
| Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.110 | $51.95 | +$2.46 |
| Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.105 | $31.50 | +$1.50 |
| Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.135 | $31.18 | +$1.16 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.165 | $29.70 | +$2.70 |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.044 | $20.52 | −$4.38 |
| Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.021 | $19.17 | −$30.83 |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.051 | $17.82 | −$5.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.42at 0.437Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$52.31at 0.216Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$51.00at 0.286Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics
- +$37.64at 0.442Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever
- +$32.26at 0.387Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 08:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $27.00 |
| 09-06 07:54 | Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.054 | $11.88 |
| 09-04 09:53 | Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.01 |
| 08-25 02:02 | Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | SELL | 0.45 | $70.31 |
| 08-23 00:46 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.05111925 | $14.31 |
| 08-19 06:23 | Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | SELL | 0.14 | $45.85 |
| 08-11 04:00 | Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 09:05 | Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.09 | $47.18 |
| 08-04 07:09 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.148 | $53.28 |
| 07-30 04:32 | Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 08:12 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.038 | $10.64 |
| 07-28 08:11 | Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.027 | $10.80 |
| 07-28 08:10 | Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.057 | $15.96 |
| 07-26 07:29 | Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 07-19 02:11 | Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | SELL | 0.12 | $40.71 |