0x0412F5629Cc5a96E745b81A77Ed6efEcAd22d9c2-1776410083041
0x0412f5629cc5a96e745b81a77ed6efecad22d9c2
- Realised P&L
- $-711.99
- Volume
- $212.7k
- Markets traded
- 8,787
- Open portfolio
- $40.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded8,787
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration3.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 5? · No | 0.857 | 0.974 | $6.81 | +$0.82 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $335 on October 5? · No | 0.820 | 0.960 | $6.72 | +$0.98 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on October 5? · No | 0.800 | 0.925 | $6.47 | +$0.88 |
| Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.890 | 0.991 | $5.94 | +$0.60 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $750 on October 5? · No | 0.866 | 0.955 | $5.73 | +$0.53 |
| Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? · No | 0.800 | 0.645 | $4.51 | −$1.08 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? · No | 0.883 | 0.665 | $3.99 | −$1.31 |
| Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m? · No | 0.800 | 0.028 | $0.19 | −$5.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.43at 0.346Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
- +$25.95at 0.423Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
- +$25.65at 0.359Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
- +$24.71at 0.176Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
- +$24.66at 0.295Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 16:24 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on October 5? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.60 |
| 10-05 14:43 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 5? | BUY | 0.857 | $6.00 |
| 10-05 14:41 | Will Meta (META) close above $750 on October 5? | BUY | 0.866 | $5.20 |
| 10-05 14:17 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? | BUY | 0.883 | $5.30 |
| 10-05 12:42 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.89 | $5.34 |
| 10-05 12:34 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | BUY | 0.86 | $5.16 |
| 10-05 12:10 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.84 | $5.88 |
| 10-05 12:09 | Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) | BUY | 0.84 | $5.88 |
| 10-05 10:19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.846 | $5.92 |
| 10-05 09:35 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) | BUY | 0.82 | $5.74 |
| 10-05 09:33 | Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs G2 - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.83 | $5.81 |
| 10-05 09:28 | Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | BUY | 0.88 | $5.28 |
| 10-05 08:21 | Counter-Strike: Elite Klan vs CTRL Esports - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.8 | $5.60 |
| 10-05 07:02 | Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs G2 - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.81 | $5.67 |
| 10-04 21:37 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 48% and 51% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |