DontTrustMe
0x04039b3e116a67715eb5a13c1486724ed66ca7ee
- Realised P&L
- $11.1k
- Volume
- $113.1k
- Markets traded
- 137
- Open portfolio
- $18.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded137
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.338Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
- +$2.3kat 0.073Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
- +$433.46at 0.623Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
- +$355.10at 0.745Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
- +$224.00at 0.942Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 09:36 | SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31? | BUY | 0.5346511628 | $22.99 |
| 09-15 08:53 | SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $13.00 |
| 09-11 22:04 | Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6425090169 | $69.47 |
| 09-09 07:57 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.635116078 | $146.91 |
| 09-07 21:30 | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 09-07 21:25 | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $264.00 |
| 09-07 20:57 | Will Ursula von der Leyen attend King Harald V's funeral? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 09-07 20:47 | Will Ursula von der Leyen attend King Harald V's funeral? | BUY | 0.8948473097 | $73.84 |
| 09-04 22:03 | Will Emmanuel Macron attend King Harald V's funeral? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.00 |
| 09-04 21:43 | Will JD Vance attend King Harald V's funeral? | BUY | 0.8635460993 | $121.76 |
| 09-02 10:24 | Will both Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.565 | $22.60 |
| 08-30 12:41 | Will the National Rally group hold fewer than 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.82 | $20.50 |
| 08-30 12:41 | National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $67.33 |
| 08-28 11:51 | Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.8432170327 | $288.32 |
| 08-28 11:02 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.4k |