DontTrustMe
0x04039b3e116a67715eb5a13c1486724ed66ca7ee
- Realised P&L
- $10.1k
- Volume
- $144.0k
- Markets traded
- 166
- Open portfolio
- $18.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded166
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.338Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
- +$2.3kat 0.073Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
- +$974.19at 0.900Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$433.46at 0.623Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
- +$355.10at 0.745Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 19:37 | Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $26.00 |
| 10-25 21:09 | Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31? | BUY | 0.58634 | $293.17 |
| 10-25 16:55 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.87 | $34.80 |
| 10-25 16:54 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.87 | $34.80 |
| 10-25 16:54 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 10-25 16:53 | Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9509792596 | $475.48 |
| 10-25 16:08 | Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.944 | $642.13 |
| 10-25 16:07 | Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.953 | $48.60 |
| 10-25 15:36 | Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9652890153 | $162.92 |
| 10-23 20:52 | Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55360036 | $30.75 |
| 10-23 20:51 | Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $16.72 |
| 10-23 20:50 | Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 10-23 10:01 | France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? | BUY | 0.11 | $275.00 |
| 10-22 18:45 | Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.42 | $37.80 |
| 10-21 14:01 | Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.5804347448 | $66.76 |