DontTrustMe
0x04039b3e116a67715eb5a13c1486724ed66ca7ee
- Realised P&L
- $10.3k
- Volume
- $88.4k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $18.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.338Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
- +$2.3kat 0.073Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
- +$433.46at 0.623Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
- +$231.91at 0.940Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
- +$217.25at 0.276Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 01:04 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.6295463031 | $222.57 |
| 07-31 00:59 | Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 07-28 10:47 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.79 | $22.12 |
| 07-28 10:47 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 07-28 10:11 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7920570265 | $38.89 |
| 07-25 16:20 | Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8773799784 | $600.53 |
| 07-25 16:17 | Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9759269372 | $77.21 |
| 07-25 15:31 | Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $8.80 |
| 07-24 13:54 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 07-22 22:50 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8759769895 | $36.55 |
| 07-22 17:26 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.808 | $28.08 |
| 07-21 18:22 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.79 | $79.00 |
| 07-21 17:50 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $12.00 |
| 07-21 17:50 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $48.00 |
| 07-21 17:50 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.79 | $31.85 |