0x04033089beb8a8c8ad0c6089946d0b335c4445ec
0x04033089beb8a8c8ad0c6089946d0b335c4445ec
- Realised P&L
- $2.29
- Volume
- $96.74
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $11.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.660 | $3.55 | +$2.26 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · No | 0.650 | 0.984 | $1.95 | +$0.66 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.935 | $1.91 | +$0.62 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.962 | $1.91 | +$0.62 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.415 | $1.16 | −$0.13 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.510 | $0.91 | −$0.38 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.065 | $0.22 | −$1.07 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.016 | $0.05 | −$1.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.71at 0.329Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 17?
- +$2.26at 0.369SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$1.49at 0.470Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $174 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$1.43at 0.480Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$1.26at 0.510Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 06:10 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.719999866 | $1.29 |
| 09-21 06:09 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999715 | $1.29 |
| 09-20 22:01 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.29 |
| 09-19 06:04 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6499999496 | $1.29 |
| 09-17 17:30 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.349999934 | $1.06 |
| 09-17 12:53 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.6499997984 | $1.29 |
| 09-16 11:38 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.359999933 | $1.29 |
| 09-16 03:37 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7799996009 | $1.29 |
| 09-15 03:35 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.629999834 | $1.29 |
| 09-14 07:04 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $174 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999715 | $1.29 |
| 09-13 23:03 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999541 | $1.29 |
| 09-09 19:48 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.29 |
| 09-09 11:48 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.6899999144 | $1.29 |
| 09-08 22:20 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999455 | $1.29 |
| 09-08 12:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.29 |