bg3413
0x03d1c5d9efe13b6ab7c21eb166495606ec5affaa
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $228.8k
- Markets traded
- 143
- Open portfolio
- $425.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded143
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$505.64at 0.717Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
- +$479.99at 0.610Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$396.66at 0.395Will the US strike Somalia next?
- +$340.85at 0.320Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
- +$305.70at 0.766US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-22 15:23 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.94 | $658.00 |
| 03-14 19:22 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $130.10 |
| 03-14 15:39 | Will FC København win on 2026-03-15? | BUY | 0.4599999972 | $85.18 |
| 03-14 15:38 | Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:37 | Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:36 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.3547315255 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:36 | Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.3892308775 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:35 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? | BUY | 0.4299999985 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:34 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? | BUY | 0.3888218681 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:33 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.449999998 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 15:31 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $100.00 |
| 03-12 19:21 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.59 |
| 03-12 19:12 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | SELL | 0.9865009727 | $314.40 |
| 03-11 20:21 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.1290677382 | $100.00 |
| 03-11 20:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3295423728 | $500.00 |