PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

bg3413

0x03d1c5d9efe13b6ab7c21eb166495606ec5affaa

Realised P&L
$-2.4k
Volume
$228.8k
Markets traded
143
Open portfolio
$425.55

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded143
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · No0.6800.954$140.11+$40.11
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.3300.075$113.79$386.20
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? · Yes0.2690.065$71.80$225.68
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3400.065$32.50$137.50
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0500.139$28.04+$18.04
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0250.025$25.52+$0.40
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0140.006$7.80$9.00
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0080.002$4.55$19.36
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0050.002$1.53$3.57
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? · Yes0.1870.000$0.00$5.36
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00$300.00
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%? · Yes0.3500.000$0.00$10.50
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes0.1290.000$0.00$300.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-22 15:23Netanyahu out by June 30?SELL0.94$658.00
03-14 19:22Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?SELL0.87$130.10
03-14 15:39Will FC København win on 2026-03-15?BUY0.4599999972$85.18
03-14 15:38Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15?BUY0.5$100.00
03-14 15:37Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-14?BUY0.4199999977$100.00
03-14 15:36Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-14?BUY0.3547315255$100.00
03-14 15:36Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14?BUY0.3892308775$100.00
03-14 15:35Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?BUY0.4299999985$100.00
03-14 15:34Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?BUY0.3888218681$100.00
03-14 15:33Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14?BUY0.449999998$100.00
03-14 15:31Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?BUY0.5899999991$100.00
03-12 19:21Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?SELL0.17$1.59
03-12 19:12Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?SELL0.9865009727$314.40
03-11 20:21Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY0.1290677382$100.00
03-11 20:11Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.3295423728$500.00