0x03ba2740626952fd1afe60bed6a5bcb62c7de133
0x03ba2740626952fd1afe60bed6a5bcb62c7de133
- Realised P&L
- $10.39
- Volume
- $457.48
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $10.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.925 | $7.34 | +$2.34 |
| Spread: Independiente Medellín (-2.5) · Independiente Medellín | 0.280 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Spread: Independiente Medellín (-1.5) · Independiente Medellín | 0.510 | 0.495 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Independiente Medellín vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 3.5 · Over | 0.370 | 0.355 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.015 | $0.32 | −$4.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.83at 0.240Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$12.65at 0.289Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
- +$7.70at 0.400Will Trump say "Think About It" during remarks in New York?
- +$5.29at 0.492Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$4.85at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 23:17 | Spread: Independiente Medellín (-2.5) | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 23:17 | Independiente Medellín vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 23:17 | Spread: Independiente Medellín (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 04:30 | Will IFK Varnamo win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 23:34 | RKS Rakow Czestochowa vs. Zaglebie Lubin: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:03 | IFK Varnamo vs. Osters IF: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 04:22 | Rio Ave FC vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 03:15 | Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 01:16 | Djurgardens IF vs. GAIS: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 00:15 | Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 22:29 | CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 19:54 | CA Independiente vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 15:01 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 15:01 | Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 15:01 | Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |