cazaputas42
0x0349b977e7ef73eb0d8fb58563c20449ea43ac4b
- Realised P&L
- $-567.93
- Volume
- $8.9k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $43.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.210 | $20.63 | −$5.83 |
| Will Gilberto Mora play for PSG next? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.118 | $11.51 | −$14.81 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.555 | $11.33 | +$1.33 |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? · Yes | 0.651 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes | 0.249 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.48at 0.088Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
- +$33.46at 0.130Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$13.85at 0.520Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?
- +$9.59at 0.061Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$8.83at 0.730Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be green/yellow?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:46 | Will Gilberto Mora play for PSG next? | BUY | 0.2698154229 | $26.32 |
| 08-22 02:18 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 02:15 | Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? | BUY | 0.6509999816 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 02:12 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.204 | $20.81 |
| 08-22 02:11 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.083 | $1.66 |
| 05-12 04:17 | Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $45.48 |
| 05-02 06:44 | Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? | BUY | 0.0879450604 | $5.00 |
| 04-17 16:24 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2491528057 | $200.00 |
| 04-17 04:05 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3399999907 | $12.37 |
| 04-15 20:50 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.0053597831 | $12.34 |
| 04-10 08:15 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.0538972587 | $135.49 |
| 04-01 17:58 | Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.8899995772 | $1.20 |
| 02-09 01:23 | Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? | BUY | 0.2883467894 | $6.00 |
| 02-08 23:32 | Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | BUY | 0.121573746 | $10.00 |
| 02-08 22:44 | Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | BUY | 0.44 | $10.56 |