0x030da2da40d63ef977fc553ff98c58ab2d4bf512
0x030da2da40d63ef977fc553ff98c58ab2d4bf512
- Realised P&L
- $16.51
- Volume
- $452.87
- Markets traded
- 157
- Open portfolio
- $5.32
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded157
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.705 | $2.39 | +$0.39 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 1.000 | $1.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.100 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.065 | $0.15 | −$0.85 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.227Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 02:53 | Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 18:53 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 10:53 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:31 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 18:28 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 10:27 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:26 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:25 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:24 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:21 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:59 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:42 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7979998931 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 20:28 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |