0x030Ae0ed917ef5871940D1cD31D65b3240393D5c-1778354357274
0x030ae0ed917ef5871940d1cd31d65b3240393d5c
- Realised P&L
- $4.71
- Volume
- $252.90
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $32.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.275 | $31.98 | −$18.02 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.105 | $0.52 | −$1.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.05at 0.760Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?
- +$7.58at 0.787Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?
- +$4.00at 0.920Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 11:57 | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | BUY | 0.4299999979 | $50.00 |
| 07-06 14:45 | Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? | BUY | 0.9199999936 | $46.05 |
| 06-02 09:58 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.58 |
| 06-02 09:56 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? | BUY | 0.7599999991 | $35.00 |
| 05-15 10:47 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? | BUY | 0.7869999848 | $28.00 |