M19284
0x02f09b29e2c5dc814ce93d1870e621b586f3d710
- Realised P&L
- $862.08
- Volume
- $433.9k
- Markets traded
- 166
- Open portfolio
- $662.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded166
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.925 | $185.00 | +$11.00 |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.951 | $177.82 | +$20.75 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.980 | $120.91 | +$6.36 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.982 | $103.99 | +$5.20 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.980 | $68.56 | +$3.19 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.003 | $6.00 | −$19.38 |
| Tread FDV above $500M one day after launch · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.48 |
| Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$437.53at 0.682Will Jimmy Kimmel apologize by Friday?
- +$406.25at 0.953Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$369.10at 0.390Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during his AI speech on July 23?
- +$254.09at 0.909Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
- +$200.26at 0.849Will Trump say "Biden" during his AI speech on July 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 17:42 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.92 |
| 09-15 18:29 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.16 | $30.74 |
| 09-07 04:16 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 09-07 04:15 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 08-31 12:03 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6308 | $157.70 |
| 08-31 03:42 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $134.00 |
| 08-31 03:41 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $33.50 |
| 08-31 03:41 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $222.07 |
| 06-26 12:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $11.00 |
| 06-26 12:02 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 12:01 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.20 |
| 06-26 11:46 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.42 |
| 06-26 11:45 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.981 | $9.02 |
| 06-26 11:42 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.018 | $0.42 |
| 06-26 11:23 | Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch | BUY | 0.019 | $2.09 |