PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

kakouguerin

0x0255962624a49894d8c57738bb5d5320069d7a19

Realised P&L
$-375.04
Volume
$4.8k
Markets traded
62
Open portfolio
$104.85

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded62
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample34 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No0.7800.795$25.48+$0.48
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1070.051$24.12−$25.88
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? · No0.8300.900$21.70+$1.70
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? · Yes0.1430.185$12.92+$2.92
AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes0.2030.097$9.53−$10.47
Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026? · Yes0.3220.190$5.89−$4.11
Will US annex any territory in 2026? · No0.9000.938$5.21+$0.21
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1620.000$0.00−$139.82
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? · Yes0.4180.000$0.00−$15.00
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season? · Yes0.6600.000$0.00−$52.76
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.8500.000$0.00−$50.00
Will Mathieu van der Poel finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? · Yes0.4980.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-05 16:27Will Kylian Mbappe score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.2599999935$20.00
07-05 16:27Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?BUY0.2699999806$10.00
07-05 16:26Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026?BUY0.3223254144$10.00
07-05 16:25Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?BUY0.1431502492$10.00
07-05 16:25Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?BUY0.3899999774$5.00
07-05 16:24Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.8329999943$10.00
07-05 16:23Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaBUY0.3399999857$10.00
06-05 22:34Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0969999929$12.00
06-05 22:34Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.16$50.00
06-05 22:33Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?BUY0.4699999929$20.00
06-05 22:32Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1067753816$50.00
06-05 22:31US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?BUY0.6299999915$20.00
05-13 04:59Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?BUY0.6599999992$52.76
04-23 08:39Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY0.4399999982$48.21
04-18 11:27Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?BUY0.6899999911$20.21