skenvern
0x0238e2c041abea60a2c851f0165d837ddc7483aa
- Realised P&L
- $509.28
- Volume
- $37.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $96.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.240 | $93.60 | +$53.38 |
| Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.105 | $3.21 | +$3.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$578.75at 0.051Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$95.79at 0.019Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?
- +$5.79at 0.150Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$0.03at 0.002Nebula3 FDV above $50M one day after launch?
- +$-29.30at 0.240Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 16:15 | Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1031348718 | $40.22 |
| 06-30 17:53 | Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0039803922 | $0.12 |
| 03-21 01:51 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0857505613 | $1.1k |
| 03-18 03:00 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.051 | $0.51 |
| 03-16 11:49 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.1408649667 | $643.69 |
| 03-16 07:48 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1213473273 | $164.75 |
| 03-14 16:36 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1013047197 | $18.19 |
| 03-14 16:35 | Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.22 | $18.19 |
| 03-12 17:17 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1199999991 | $110.20 |
| 03-12 11:17 | Nebula3 FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.04 |
| 03-12 10:02 | Nebula3 FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.05 |
| 03-12 09:59 | Nebula3 FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 02-26 12:50 | Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 02-24 11:57 | Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.0189054706 | $9.00 |
| 01-14 03:19 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999986 | $100.45 |