mrBet
0x01a4536519942190034079ce42ed726266fb0064
- Realised P&L
- $-4.2k
- Volume
- $341.0k
- Markets traded
- 258
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded258
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.653Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?
- +$794.85at 0.269Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?
- +$751.29at 0.152Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$601.49at 0.907Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
- +$403.16at 0.288Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 16:10 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999959 | $50.00 |
| 07-26 16:09 | Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? | BUY | 0.3516119414 | $50.00 |
| 07-26 16:07 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.2599999966 | $50.00 |
| 07-26 16:04 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.5199999958 | $50.00 |
| 07-26 16:04 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.5160982931 | $50.00 |
| 07-26 16:03 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0999043211 | $93.24 |
| 07-26 16:02 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.26 | $237.50 |
| 07-26 16:02 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.32 | $303.90 |
| 07-26 16:01 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.2419375248 | $226.00 |
| 07-25 09:35 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.4099999969 | $50.00 |
| 07-25 09:31 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.042 | $10.00 |
| 07-25 09:29 | Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 07-25 09:29 | Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.0839999916 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 22:11 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 22:03 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4463963258 | $300.00 |