AJK2
0x014e43f125476582b224aac58191bb892d913794
- Realised P&L
- $900.28
- Volume
- $114.1k
- Markets traded
- 280
- Open portfolio
- $7.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded280
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$146.67at 0.120US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
- +$105.63at 0.159Kristi Noem out by March 31?
- +$92.59at 0.844US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
- +$80.60at 0.199Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$71.49at 0.627US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:14 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.61 | $149.45 |
| 09-17 22:14 | Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $100.00 |
| 09-16 17:32 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.78 | $198.90 |
| 09-16 17:29 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.003 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 21:08 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 08:45 | Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9475820154 | $600.00 |
| 09-11 23:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.9682640042 | $403.44 |
| 09-09 20:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4699999988 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 03:09 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8 | $400.00 |
| 09-08 09:39 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.987 | $201.94 |
| 09-02 19:18 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.986 | $500.00 |
| 09-02 19:17 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9312375303 | $400.00 |
| 09-02 19:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.987999999 | $500.00 |
| 09-02 19:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $400.00 |
| 08-30 14:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9959999988 | $626.00 |