aka41
0x013dfc13ce1fdfac5e32568f9d03fd2a904a3e88
- Realised P&L
- $5.9k
- Volume
- $3.72M
- Markets traded
- 593
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded593
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.1kat 0.190Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?
- +$3.0kat 0.137Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
- +$2.8kat 0.149Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$2.8kat 0.028Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?
- +$2.7kat 0.035Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 01:39 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.019 | $34.22 |
| 10-27 00:49 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.80 |
| 10-27 00:47 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.17 | $11.33 |
| 10-27 00:46 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.17 | $4.25 |
| 10-21 19:07 | Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least $6M? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 21:26 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.36 | $470.65 |
| 09-09 20:29 | Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.5250946644 | $305.08 |
| 09-09 00:15 | Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 07-05 21:14 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.1799999909 | $15.00 |
| 06-22 23:12 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.59 |
| 06-22 23:12 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on June 30? | BUY | 0.0368413967 | $1.75 |
| 06-06 04:27 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.6714547755 | $138.00 |
| 06-06 04:27 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.68 | $222.97 |
| 05-02 05:05 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.0232056106 | $76.61 |
| 04-01 19:29 | Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.1486281973 | $97.62 |