0x00c049827Eb3206e63FbFF1C442132c454324610-1773587440475
0x00c049827eb3206e63fbff1c442132c454324610
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $274.1k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.369Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
- +$2.9kat 0.241US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.462Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
- +$2.3kat 0.407MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.508Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 22:41 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3359208976 | $3.0k |
| 08-20 04:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.9k |
| 08-08 01:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2408627975 | $1000.00 |
| 07-23 00:51 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.3844700254 | $1.5k |
| 07-21 11:32 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.407701948 | $751.16 |
| 07-14 14:57 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4049999998 | $1000.00 |
| 07-11 11:41 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.211 | $873.16 |
| 07-11 11:41 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.1767235293 | $1.5k |
| 07-09 01:01 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.4070698442 | $1.5k |
| 07-05 15:10 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4699999997 | $200.00 |
| 07-05 15:09 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2999999992 | $200.00 |
| 07-03 05:07 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1229999998 | $509.00 |
| 07-03 05:06 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.05500594 | $509.31 |
| 06-30 00:37 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.1618522908 | $1000.00 |
| 06-28 09:18 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | BUY | 0.0435078164 | $100.00 |