ThePortrait
0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561
- Realised P&L
- $49.0k
- Volume
- $3.15M
- Markets traded
- 1,406
- Open portfolio
- $7.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,406
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.740 | 0.945 | $2.8k | +$615.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No | 0.881 | 0.967 | $1.9k | +$170.88 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.512 | $1.0k | +$25.29 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.500 | 0.487 | $975.00 | −$25.00 |
| US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? · No | 0.733 | 0.964 | $564.35 | +$135.35 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.085 | $397.88 | −$303.24 |
| Will Elon register any party before 2027? · No | 0.804 | 0.894 | $59.78 | +$6.01 |
| Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.999 | $4.99 | +$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.4kat 0.091Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17?
- +$3.3kat 0.500Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17?
- +$3.0kat 0.550Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1?
- +$2.6kat 0.193US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$2.1kat 0.298Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 15:30 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $38.29 |
| 07-27 14:01 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.0k |
| 07-08 02:40 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.0k |
| 07-04 16:57 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.2k |
| 06-30 18:04 | Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.0k |
| 06-30 13:04 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.9k |
| 06-30 13:03 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.57 |
| 06-30 13:02 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.96 |
| 06-29 03:36 | Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? | SELL | 0.0835414708 | $41.77 |
| 06-18 11:33 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $130.00 |
| 06-18 11:33 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.1381713516 | $343.83 |
| 06-17 10:35 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | SELL | 0.2019237 | $201.92 |
| 06-17 01:51 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.9k |
| 06-10 05:38 | Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? | BUY | 0.026470887 | $11.72 |
| 06-10 02:47 | Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? | BUY | 0.09 | $10.19 |