0xffd7b4f3ef9e0f80d7a4e14e872d5446d856b9c8
0xffd7b4f3ef9e0f80d7a4e14e872d5446d856b9c8
- Realised P&L
- $-46.10
- Volume
- $491.86
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $69.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.780 | $69.79 | −$0.89 |
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$77.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.04at 0.608Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?
- +$8.87at 0.878Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
- +$4.28at 0.902Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$-4.87at 0.862Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 01:08 | Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat? | BUY | 0.7899999991 | $70.68 |
| 10-06 07:47 | Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.8558726585 | $62.21 |
| 09-24 08:25 | Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election? | BUY | 0.5860978989 | $37.40 |
| 09-24 08:24 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | SELL | 0.7882802925 | $39.88 |
| 09-21 11:03 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.8399999984 | $42.50 |
| 09-04 08:17 | Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.88 | $38.34 |
| 08-12 15:58 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | BUY | 0.64 | $77.53 |