Maragaravalhitiskelerson
0xffd0a1c4ef9ecf798cf5b62b861ab00559cc6b34
- Realised P&L
- $-12.4k
- Volume
- $208.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.025 | $773.48 | −$2.3k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.038 | $622.68 | −$1.3k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.029 | $420.86 | −$1.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.730US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$-20.84at 0.046Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?
- +$-58.71at 0.014US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$-558.89at 0.074Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
- +$-8.0kat 0.308Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-24 17:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.8k |
| 05-05 03:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.076090493 | $8.77 |
| 05-05 03:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $48.20 |
| 05-05 03:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $672.73 |
| 04-08 13:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1165454122 | $41.29 |
| 04-08 04:58 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.004 | $6.29 |
| 04-08 01:01 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 00:42 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.007 | $25.00 |
| 04-08 00:03 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.0139991783 | $100.00 |
| 03-23 13:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $819.40 |
| 03-23 13:36 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.0792312743 | $819.40 |
| 03-21 01:49 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.18303193 | $1.8k |
| 03-19 15:52 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2882423167 | $350.71 |
| 03-19 15:51 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $714.53 |
| 03-19 15:49 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $135.00 |