0xffb3dda1624d7235eeb541617a48251b7d03fc0c
0xffb3dda1624d7235eeb541617a48251b7d03fc0c
- Realised P&L
- $-15.45
- Volume
- $170.01
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $1.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.615 | $1.30 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.30at 0.470Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.30at 0.610Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$1.24at 0.622Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?
- +$1.13at 0.629Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 22:30 | Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.58 |
| 09-07 13:11 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-18 03:04 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.2539999294 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 18:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 12:57 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 02:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 06:11 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 21:23 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 13:21 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 05:20 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 08:14 | Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 00:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:06 | Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:05 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |