0xff8e5b36f7164e2659a1aeebc04c9cf94dd074a7
- Realised P&L
- $6.22
- Volume
- $112.75
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $29.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? · No | 0.320 | 0.910 | $7.08 | +$4.59 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 7? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.580 | $5.35 | +$2.86 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.250 | 0.505 | $5.03 | +$2.54 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.905 | $2.89 | +$0.40 |
| Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.210 | 0.210 | $2.49 | +$0.00 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.725 | $2.41 | −$0.08 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.395 | $1.41 | −$1.08 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.240 | 0.105 | $1.09 | −$1.40 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.330 | 0.125 | $0.94 | −$1.55 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.175 | $0.57 | −$1.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.30at 0.430Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$3.04at 0.450Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.83at 0.750Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 11:18 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 7? | BUY | 0.2699999273 | $2.49 |
| 08-07 03:03 | Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2099999486 | $2.49 |
| 08-06 19:00 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.49 |
| 08-06 10:58 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.6499999478 | $2.49 |
| 08-05 13:42 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.49 |
| 08-05 05:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.49 |
| 08-04 21:31 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.4899999626 | $2.49 |
| 08-04 13:31 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4299999516 | $2.49 |
| 08-04 05:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.49 |
| 08-03 21:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.3299999351 | $2.49 |
| 08-03 13:29 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.49 |
| 08-03 05:28 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499999277 | $2.49 |
| 08-02 21:05 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799999624 | $2.49 |
| 08-02 01:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7699999845 | $2.49 |
| 08-01 16:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.49 |