stellarman
0xff86697d418dea12d40eea183ad6efe9d154897e
- Realised P&L
- $6.9k
- Volume
- $54.8k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $200.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 19? · No | 0.800 | 0.915 | $104.31 | +$13.11 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 19? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.845 | $96.33 | −$13.11 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · No | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$812.00 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $875B by September 30? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.87 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.35 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$74.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.590Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?
- +$1.3kat 0.610Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?
- +$1.1kat 0.617Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
- +$1.0kat 0.550Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?
- +$983.12at 0.574Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 22:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.8 | $91.20 |
| 10-13 21:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.96 | $109.44 |
| 10-10 11:41 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | SELL | 0.34 | $41.15 |
| 10-10 11:38 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | SELL | 0.34 | $27.54 |
| 10-10 11:14 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | SELL | 0.35 | $15.79 |
| 10-10 11:05 | Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | SELL | 0.56 | $139.44 |
| 10-10 11:00 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.29 | $131.66 |
| 10-08 20:02 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.28 | $127.12 |
| 10-08 18:29 | Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | BUY | 0.51 | $126.99 |
| 10-06 01:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | BUY | 0.29 | $72.50 |
| 10-01 14:45 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3380631225 | $84.51 |
| 09-29 09:23 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.19 | $25.12 |
| 09-28 17:40 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.25 | $16.42 |
| 09-28 12:15 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $875B by September 30? | BUY | 0.0523521127 | $14.87 |
| 09-24 21:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.87 | $72.21 |