0xff58d7bc2faceb949bb604918fc713bed767236b
- Realised P&L
- $0.16
- Volume
- $330.00
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $94.87
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.971 | $48.55 | +$23.55 |
| China coup attempt before 2027? · No | 0.953 | 0.941 | $9.40 | −$0.12 |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? · No | 0.978 | 0.981 | $8.82 | +$0.02 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · No | 0.852 | 0.872 | $7.85 | +$0.18 |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · No | 0.799 | 0.909 | $7.27 | +$0.88 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.845 | 0.872 | $6.98 | +$0.22 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.835 | $2.50 | +$1.00 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.065 | $1.95 | −$2.85 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.029 | $0.78 | −$12.72 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.095 | $0.76 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.32at 0.380Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.750Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.800Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.36at 0.929Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
- +$0.09at 0.891Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 08:11 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.852 | $7.67 |
| 06-30 14:48 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.845 | $6.76 |
| 06-17 20:16 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $4.81 |
| 06-07 04:13 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 04-23 13:23 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.891 | $4.46 |
| 04-23 13:23 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.943 | $4.71 |
| 04-23 13:23 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $6.50 |
| 04-23 13:23 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.799 | $6.39 |
| 04-21 13:21 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.254 | $2.54 |
| 04-17 20:11 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 04-17 20:11 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.68 |
| 04-15 15:56 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.978 | $13.69 |
| 04-09 15:36 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.80 |
| 03-25 03:01 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 03-16 17:38 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.214 | $3.42 |