Garner1
0xff3c82525741420e07a3b7261d8433239b25f63f
- Realised P&L
- $-872.60
- Volume
- $21.5k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $7.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.948 | 0.951 | $4.18 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.155 | $3.10 | −$5.10 |
| Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) · Shanghai Shenhua FC | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$425.01 |
| Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) · Adelaide United FC | 0.952 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$495.04 |
| Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.19at 0.951Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5)
- +$19.98at 0.910Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5)
- +$16.82at 0.966Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5)
- +$7.06at 0.985Spread: IK Start (-1.5)
- +$5.60at 0.972Spread: Peru (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 05:44 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9479999909 | $4.17 |
| 08-27 06:40 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by August 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $405.00 |
| 08-27 05:49 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $408.90 |
| 08-24 07:29 | Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $423.00 |
| 08-23 01:58 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $423.15 |
| 07-15 03:03 | Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.905 | $420.82 |
| 07-15 01:35 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.939 | $424.43 |
| 07-14 07:47 | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $424.08 |
| 07-14 02:03 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $423.15 |
| 07-05 05:28 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $389.50 |
| 07-05 01:46 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $391.00 |
| 06-23 06:46 | Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $373.20 |
| 06-23 01:59 | Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $367.35 |
| 06-17 05:48 | Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $280.25 |
| 05-16 06:29 | Spread: IK Start (-1.5) | BUY | 0.985 | $477.72 |