politoedexgroyp
0xff296dac63d0e3ae4dc6ea1dedd4a1110b1a8334
- Realised P&L
- $-244.43
- Volume
- $14.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $256.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.499 | 0.490 | $141.41 | −$2.59 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.005 | $66.23 | −$224.52 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · No | 0.179 | 0.055 | $29.12 | −$65.88 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.125 | $19.32 | +$2.32 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.199 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.89at 0.090Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
- +$13.30at 0.530Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?
- +$-1.25at 0.160Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$-3.84at 0.078Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
- +$-3.87at 0.031Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 22:37 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $5.62 |
| 09-18 22:36 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $18.75 |
| 09-18 20:33 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.498960499 | $144.00 |
| 09-18 20:22 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.018 | $1.16 |
| 09-18 20:22 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.13 |
| 09-18 20:21 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.10 |
| 09-10 22:24 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.0411811806 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 18:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $90.00 |
| 09-10 18:09 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.0777666997 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 18:09 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.0179999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 06:02 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099999946 | $17.00 |
| 09-07 05:49 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.8 | $88.89 |
| 09-01 20:59 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0289999897 | $2.66 |
| 09-01 20:58 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0240872177 | $287.11 |
| 09-01 20:53 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.94 |