Ilir99
0xfef194da5f7a34e0ef672966d72d2f610c83b2ea
- Realised P&L
- $-56.33
- Volume
- $868.40
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $115.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30? · Yes | 0.614 | 0.910 | $74.12 | +$24.12 |
| Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m? · Yes | 0.754 | 0.612 | $40.55 | −$9.45 |
| Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.008 | $0.61 | −$49.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.12at 0.445Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 29?
- +$15.40at 0.619Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?
- +$13.59at 0.340Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28?
- +$5.11at 0.540Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 28?
- +$4.86at 0.590Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 08:20 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.4454969101 | $25.00 |
| 10-29 06:52 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.6187624721 | $25.00 |
| 10-29 06:51 | Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.5599999919 | $25.00 |
| 10-29 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.4499999964 | $25.00 |
| 10-29 06:46 | Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m? | BUY | 0.7545452449 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 20:50 | Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30? | BUY | 0.6138613854 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 20:48 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? | BUY | 0.6599999979 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 05:32 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.4699999696 | $4.17 |
| 10-28 05:28 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.4264462641 | $6.00 |
| 10-28 05:27 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.539999964 | $6.00 |
| 10-28 05:22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.1399999995 | $6.00 |
| 10-28 05:22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $5.00 |
| 10-28 05:19 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.4099999816 | $6.00 |
| 10-27 19:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.3399999883 | $7.00 |
| 10-27 19:56 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.689999994 | $8.00 |