0xfecA7df4ddA4074F97823bC329c0ae3437B4e625-1774352865416
0xfeca7df4dda4074f97823bc329c0ae3437b4e625
- Realised P&L
- $-417.57
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $152.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.155 | $62.84 | −$87.16 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.580 | 0.695 | $58.57 | +$9.69 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $17.19 | −$32.81 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.027 | $10.99 | −$45.78 |
| Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.025 | $3.36 | −$6.64 |
| Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes | 0.716 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.05 |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$97.40at 0.316U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
- +$73.19at 0.190U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
- +$45.00at 0.080Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$42.03at 0.083Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- +$19.05at 0.840Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-21 18:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999992 | $94.05 |
| 05-14 14:34 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | BUY | 0.02 | $15.00 |
| 05-14 14:34 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.024 | $15.00 |
| 05-11 15:10 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.040288911 | $57.03 |
| 05-01 13:00 | Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.7983367983 | $48.00 |
| 05-01 12:58 | Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | BUY | 0.0798987327 | $50.00 |
| 05-01 12:31 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | SELL | 0.8852897587 | $93.19 |
| 04-29 06:55 | Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? | SELL | 0.11 | $7.67 |
| 04-28 13:35 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5799999955 | $48.88 |
| 04-28 13:34 | Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.7171314723 | $50.00 |
| 04-28 13:23 | Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress? | BUY | 0.4730331519 | $26.29 |
| 04-28 13:16 | Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9544329461 | $126.54 |
| 04-21 14:32 | Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999998 | $107.39 |
| 04-21 13:58 | Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 04-21 13:57 | Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | BUY | 0.12 | $30.00 |