ndb1
0xfea31bc088000ff909be1dfd8d0e3f2c7ef2d227
- Realised P&L
- $2.76M
- Volume
- $139.78M
- Markets traded
- 3,014
- Open portfolio
- $5.83M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded3,014
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.05Mat 0.490Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$699.4kat 0.025Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$550.2kat 0.518Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
- +$546.5kat 0.023Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$483.4kat 0.311Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:22 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Ohio? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.52 |
| 11-01 16:21 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.35 |
| 11-01 03:58 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY | 0.994 | $2.9k |
| 11-01 03:57 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | SELL | 0.25 | $26.1k |
| 11-01 03:56 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $60.7k |
| 11-01 03:56 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $80.5k |
| 11-01 03:55 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $34.1k |
| 11-01 03:55 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $24.2k |
| 11-01 02:11 | Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.81063663 | $1.9k |
| 11-01 02:10 | Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.12 | $35.34 |
| 11-01 01:27 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.71 | $94.2k |
| 11-01 01:26 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.23 | $7.0k |
| 11-01 00:31 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.2349313645 | $222.3k |
| 11-01 00:31 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.24 | $71.3k |
| 10-31 18:12 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY | 0.994 | $9.4k |