0xfe88b22519fe0bfb0b66111a9716f47e740ae545
0xfe88b22519fe0bfb0b66111a9716f47e740ae545
- Realised P&L
- $-43.02
- Volume
- $8.8k
- Markets traded
- 340
- Open portfolio
- $44.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded340
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No | 0.350 | 0.895 | $12.43 | +$7.57 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.581 | $7.22 | +$2.37 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles | 0.540 | 0.525 | $4.80 | −$0.14 |
| Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles · Yes | 0.480 | 0.465 | $4.73 | −$0.15 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.285 | $4.57 | −$0.40 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? · No | 0.520 | 0.840 | $4.12 | +$1.57 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · No | 0.540 | 0.825 | $3.54 | +$1.22 |
| Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.870 | $3.38 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.25at 0.146Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$19.11at 0.205MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$13.71at 0.271Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-09-05?
- +$13.52at 0.274Spread: Spain (-2.5)
- +$12.14at 0.291Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 03:49 | Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999428 | $1.09 |
| 09-22 20:14 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | BUY | 0.5399998587 | $1.07 |
| 09-22 20:13 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | BUY | 0.5399998806 | $1.99 |
| 09-22 20:13 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | BUY | 0.5399999196 | $1.88 |
| 09-22 20:11 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | BUY | 0.4799999843 | $4.88 |
| 09-21 18:04 | Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $0.21 |
| 09-20 21:26 | Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.50 |
| 09-20 21:26 | Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.50 |
| 09-20 19:34 | Eagles vs. Titans | SELL | 0.33 | $2.15 |
| 09-20 13:51 | Eagles vs. Titans | BUY | 0.7599999694 | $4.97 |
| 09-20 12:58 | Will Frosinone Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8199999173 | $1.19 |
| 09-20 12:57 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.72 | $4.95 |
| 09-20 12:04 | Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.5299999802 | $1.07 |
| 09-20 12:03 | Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.5299999802 | $1.07 |
| 09-18 00:38 | Lions vs. Bills | SELL | 0.15 | $2.34 |