SmokeDrinkPerm
0xfe61fb8f6d23d20cbcbcd0035604a887ea8fe9c2
- Realised P&L
- $-333.03
- Volume
- $120.5k
- Markets traded
- 5,774
- Open portfolio
- $3.52
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,774
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.335 | 0.075 | $3.00 | −$10.41 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.015 | $0.52 | −$2.46 |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$5.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.93at 0.793Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?
- +$70.00at 0.900Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?
- +$50.50at 0.899Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?
- +$32.82at 0.030Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 3?
- +$27.80at 0.140Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 20:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.0885148506 | $2.98 |
| 09-30 16:49 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.935 | $20.06 |
| 09-24 14:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.714 | $6.02 |
| 09-23 12:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | SELL | 0.985 | $645.17 |
| 09-12 05:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | BUY | 0.78 | $432.90 |
| 09-05 09:25 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $11.01 |
| 08-27 13:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 27? | BUY | 0.996 | $436.22 |
| 08-17 08:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.38 | $3.31 |
| 08-17 03:39 | Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $4.93 |
| 08-17 03:32 | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SELL | 0.954 | $4.77 |
| 08-17 03:32 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 08-17 03:20 | StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 08-17 03:19 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.68 | $3.40 |
| 08-17 03:19 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.58 | $5.07 |
| 08-17 03:12 | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.50 |