PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

SmokeDrinkPerm

0xfe61fb8f6d23d20cbcbcd0035604a887ea8fe9c2

Realised P&L
$-333.03
Volume
$120.5k
Markets traded
5,774
Open portfolio
$3.52

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,774
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration74.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration85.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 5-11? · Yes0.3350.075$3.00−$10.41
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? · Yes0.0880.015$0.52−$2.46
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.6400.001$0.00−$5.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-07 20:12Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11?BUY0.0885148506$2.98
09-30 16:49Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.935$20.06
09-24 14:17Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?BUY0.714$6.02
09-23 12:47Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?SELL0.985$645.17
09-12 05:51Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?BUY0.78$432.90
09-05 09:25Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?SELL0.77$11.01
08-27 13:13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 27?BUY0.996$436.22
08-17 08:54Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?SELL0.38$3.31
08-17 03:39Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.987$4.93
08-17 03:32Major CEX insolvent in 2026?SELL0.954$4.77
08-17 03:32Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.86$4.30
08-17 03:20StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?SELL0.77$3.85
08-17 03:19Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.68$3.40
08-17 03:19Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?SELL0.58$5.07
08-17 03:12Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?SELL0.5$2.50