PONYHell
0xfe2c57a54415efc0924d6c911ef3e6c115696edf
- Realised P&L
- $-17.92
- Volume
- $333.69
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $8.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.277 | $3.22 | +$2.22 |
| Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.255 | $2.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.160 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.015 | $0.51 | −$0.49 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.418 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.99at 0.480Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$-1.05at 0.155Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- +$-2.23at 0.490Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$-5.15at 0.422Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 03:52 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.0859999998 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 12:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 08:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 08:38 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.14999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 08:38 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 12:25 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.0282926559 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 07:19 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.20 |
| 08-09 07:18 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999719 | $4.00 |
| 07-30 15:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4599999264 | $3.00 |
| 07-30 11:59 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.952 | $10.12 |
| 07-28 14:04 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0359999933 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 14:24 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 07-26 09:50 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.92 |
| 07-19 04:31 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 07-18 14:00 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.4799999568 | $4.00 |