LucilleGardner734
0xfe26c16876dac6b860200d0ed0fd4eaef025063e
- Realised P&L
- $-29.27
- Volume
- $34.1k
- Markets traded
- 428
- Open portfolio
- $78.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded428
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $29.81 | +$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 23? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $20.38 | −$0.02 |
| Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $18.16 | −$0.01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on September 22? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $10.21 | +$0.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? · No | 0.997 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.35at 0.996Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.08at 0.997Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 11?
- +$0.07at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?
- +$0.06at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26?
- +$0.06at 0.998Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 22:33 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $10.18 |
| 09-22 18:05 | Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.17 |
| 09-22 16:18 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.40 |
| 09-22 00:20 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 09-19 02:23 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on September 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.00 |
| 09-18 01:28 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.70 |
| 09-17 15:13 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.80 |
| 09-13 02:54 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.9989999774 | $25.40 |
| 09-11 15:18 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on September 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.29 |
| 09-11 15:16 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $31.70 |
| 09-11 03:24 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.70 |
| 09-10 20:39 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.30 |
| 09-07 14:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.88 |
| 09-06 14:12 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.9989999795 | $19.58 |
| 09-06 08:03 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $25.00 |