Wasserbrunner
0xfe2232ecf61144d4b711f0d22da807d2d931521c
- Realised P&L
- $227.75
- Volume
- $35.6k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $254.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.595 | $129.82 | +$9.82 |
| Will Trump say "Sniper" this week? · No | 0.790 | 0.895 | $56.61 | +$6.61 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.125 | $44.64 | −$5.36 |
| Will Trump say "Cook" or "Cooked" this week? · No | 0.737 | 0.585 | $23.82 | −$6.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$213.51at 0.736Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?
- +$201.32at 0.310Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
- +$146.66at 0.577Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$115.35at 0.821Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
- +$71.08at 0.824Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 15:21 | Will Trump say "Sniper" this week? | BUY | 0.790513834 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 15:21 | Will Trump say "Cook" or "Cooked" this week? | BUY | 0.7367704757 | $30.00 |
| 09-15 15:18 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.1399999997 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 15:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5499999984 | $120.00 |
| 09-01 15:41 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $19.95 |
| 08-28 15:04 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3758654773 | $50.00 |
| 07-01 04:09 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | SELL | 0.9974404613 | $652.19 |
| 06-20 08:12 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | BUY | 0.82 | $210.74 |
| 06-20 08:12 | Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | SELL | 0.05 | $84.63 |
| 06-20 08:11 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | BUY | 0.8216848812 | $326.10 |
| 02-15 02:40 | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.0545806167 | $35.00 |
| 02-10 02:27 | Super Bowl LIX Winner | SELL | 0.006 | $15.05 |
| 02-10 02:05 | Super Bowl LIX Winner | BUY | 0.0278606965 | $100.00 |
| 02-10 01:54 | Super Bowl LIX Winner | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.00 |
| 02-10 00:34 | Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | BUY | 0.36 | $4.32 |