kaoya
0xfe1e8f76e4b75b39a9334ed273bb2ccda22652fb
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $259.6k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $8.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.360 | $8.0k | −$583.74 |
| Netanyahu out by July 31? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$817.38at 0.750Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
- +$552.40at 0.730Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
- +$388.47at 0.460Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
- +$218.20at 0.777Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
- +$212.48at 0.700Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 03:31 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $6.4k |
| 10-23 08:02 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $8.2k |
| 10-23 08:00 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $400.20 |
| 10-23 06:27 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $8.6k |
| 10-21 06:52 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.2k |
| 10-21 06:47 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | BUY | 0.73 | $5.9k |
| 10-21 03:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.49 | $784.00 |
| 10-21 02:58 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | SELL | 0.883 | $1.7k |
| 10-20 06:32 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.8689691992 | $1.7k |
| 10-20 02:57 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $7.6k |
| 10-19 06:57 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.4k |
| 10-19 03:03 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.467 | $7.3k |
| 10-19 02:32 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $7.3k |
| 10-16 08:22 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $6.8k |
| 10-16 07:53 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $6.8k |