0xfdfc43f942908cae8c87f8966b4256e5a6518675
0xfdfc43f942908cae8c87f8966b4256e5a6518675
- Realised P&L
- $4.04
- Volume
- $48.41
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $7.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.955 | $6.37 | +$4.37 |
| Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.255 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.55at 0.318Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 10?
- +$3.60at 0.591Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 7?
- +$0.09at 0.282Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix?
- +$-1.03at 0.517Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Spain?
- +$-1.05at 0.147Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 03:18 | Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.18 |
| 10-10 08:20 | Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 10-08 18:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 10? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 10-07 20:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 10-07 18:30 | Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.5679999936 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 03:20 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:20 | Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Spain? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |