Mathis.BTC
0xfddc1aef57b3533b6ca48e94f5adcc5a33cc8624
- Realised P&L
- $-39.27
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $832.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.858 | 0.895 | $417.20 | +$17.20 |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.870 | $367.77 | −$4.23 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.860 | $47.22 | −$1.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.90at 0.699Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
- +$60.14at 0.798Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$54.51at 0.902Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
- +$38.32at 0.600MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$21.57at 0.665Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 05:30 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4 | $76.92 |
| 10-28 08:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5199999981 | $100.00 |
| 10-26 05:46 | Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8580995818 | $400.00 |
| 10-13 09:50 | Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999985 | $48.32 |
| 08-30 19:06 | Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999989 | $372.00 |
| 07-07 18:31 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.94 | $405.62 |
| 07-02 19:34 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.6924999996 | $151.56 |
| 06-01 13:27 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.286 | $31.87 |
| 05-22 12:03 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $225.00 |
| 05-18 16:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $213.24 |
| 02-24 01:58 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.9264354412 | $150.00 |
| 02-24 01:54 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.9159999957 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 01:49 | Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.9679999999 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 01:48 | Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.129999993 | $16.00 |
| 02-07 06:17 | Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | BUY | 0.9017046768 | $500.00 |