0xfdc36aec7432fc252648ed828f869587db84603c
0xfdc36aec7432fc252648ed828f869587db84603c
- Realised P&L
- $5.88
- Volume
- $275.49
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $1.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.195 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.160 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.135 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.53at 0.237Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$5.30at 0.300US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$4.55at 0.339Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$3.81at 0.379WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18?
- +$3.65at 0.389Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of September 14 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 01:59 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 17:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 09:50 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 01:34 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 04:04 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 20:02 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 11:58 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 03:58 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 19:58 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 11:39 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:03 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 01:28 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:29 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 04:44 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |