Aresmoldova
0xfdbfba3ed0ae44365b044497da3f5c8cbfd8a185
- Realised P&L
- $3.03
- Volume
- $811.34
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $204.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? · No | 0.310 | 0.345 | $166.94 | +$16.94 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? · No | 0.171 | 0.175 | $20.42 | +$0.42 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.230 | $10.54 | −$0.46 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.196 | 0.060 | $7.05 | −$15.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.88at 0.724Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 September 7-13?
- +$0.45at 0.617Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 12:38 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.2399999965 | $11.00 |
| 09-14 09:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14? | SELL | 0.66 | $11.00 |
| 09-14 06:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14? | BUY | 0.599999988 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 17:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.7099999517 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 08:50 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.1714285709 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 08:45 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.3099999998 | $150.00 |
| 09-10 20:53 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1956530985 | $23.00 |