Theswordismerciless
0xfdb38f75ee6f73b1b3b80d04ab3bafce02aadb0b
- Realised P&L
- $202.47
- Volume
- $28.4k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $187.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.994 | $27.82 | +$0.39 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $0.50? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $19.99 | +$0.01 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $19.92 | −$0.06 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $19.92 | −$0.06 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $4.50? · No | 0.999 | 0.995 | $19.90 | −$0.08 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $130? · No | 0.999 | 0.995 | $19.90 | −$0.08 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $30? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.995 | $19.90 | −$0.08 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $120? · No | 0.999 | 0.995 | $19.90 | −$0.08 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $20? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.995 | $19.90 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.20at 0.960Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$28.12at 0.970Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?
- +$13.33at 0.977Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
- +$11.14at 0.986Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April?
- +$9.39at 0.945Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 04:20 | Will XRP reach $2.10 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:16 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $120? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:16 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:15 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $13.22 |
| 10-10 04:15 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $14.21 |
| 10-10 04:14 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $0.50? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:14 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $4.50? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:13 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $130? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:13 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $20? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:13 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-10 04:13 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 09-21 05:29 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in September? | BUY | 0.995 | $185.07 |
| 09-21 05:29 | Will XRP dip to $0.60 in September? | BUY | 0.995 | $188.06 |
| 09-14 08:50 | Will Solana dip to $40 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.999 | $171.83 |
| 09-14 07:30 | Will Solana reach $170 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |