0xfda25871a79F6392a98Fb6e979601cD8958D48Cd-1730847469057
0xfda25871a79f6392a98fb6e979601cd8958d48cd
- Realised P&L
- $-913.40
- Volume
- $17.5k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $28.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.064 | $15.88 | −$186.55 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.037 | $12.65 | −$202.27 |
| US bank failure by January 31? · No | 0.982 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$289.41 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$608.03 |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10? · No | 0.398 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$225.81at 0.237Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
- +$114.14at 0.636Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?
- +$102.32at 0.864Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
- +$58.24at 0.611Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$28.64at 0.935Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 17:43 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0259999999 | $200.00 |
| 03-07 01:20 | Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | BUY | 0.2669458395 | $20.00 |
| 03-07 01:20 | Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10? | BUY | 0.4680467948 | $20.00 |
| 03-07 01:15 | Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | BUY | 0.2263594697 | $50.00 |
| 03-07 01:15 | Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10? | BUY | 0.3750623879 | $50.00 |
| 03-05 04:24 | Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? | BUY | 0.8641344064 | $650.79 |
| 02-17 19:58 | Will Trump say "N-Word" in February? | BUY | 0.97 | $307.35 |
| 02-09 01:36 | Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | SELL | 0.999 | $314.14 |
| 02-09 00:15 | Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | BUY | 0.6320987654 | $100.00 |
| 02-09 00:13 | Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | BUY | 0.64 | $100.00 |
| 02-08 23:29 | Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.00 |
| 02-08 23:24 | Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? | BUY | 0.1799999928 | $20.00 |
| 02-08 23:06 | Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? | BUY | 0.089999996 | $20.00 |
| 02-08 23:05 | Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? | BUY | 0.5998210254 | $20.00 |
| 02-01 19:43 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? | BUY | 0.935187278 | $413.29 |