alwayspicks
0xfd88f9b969a81cd8d0d4cabfb67fb1bb95dfbeee
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $32.4k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $520.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.125 | $158.33 | +$44.33 |
| UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) · Wang Cong | 0.360 | 0.355 | $147.92 | −$2.08 |
| UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) · Mick Parkin | 0.460 | 0.495 | $107.61 | +$7.61 |
| UFC 332: King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Main Card) · King Green | 0.330 | 0.345 | $104.55 | +$4.55 |
| Spread: Penn State (-2.5) · Penn State | 0.520 | 0.013 | $1.30 | −$48.70 |
| Spread: Penn State (-6.5) · Penn State | 0.380 | 0.004 | $0.53 | −$49.47 |
| Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech · Virginia Tech | 0.720 | 0.001 | $0.10 | −$149.90 |
| Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 37.5 · Under | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Spread: Rams (-3.5) · Rams | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Spread: Steelers (-2.5) · Steelers | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva · Vit Kopriva | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance · Colombia | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.00 |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$914.02at 0.632Patriots vs. Seahawks
- +$423.10at 0.328Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$211.92at 0.582Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
- +$211.55at 0.328Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
- +$197.53at 0.572Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 23:17 | Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech | BUY | 0.7199999998 | $150.00 |
| 10-02 23:16 | Spread: Penn State (-2.5) | BUY | 0.5199999954 | $50.00 |
| 10-02 23:16 | Spread: Penn State (-6.5) | BUY | 0.3799999982 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 20:25 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.5099999995 | $137.27 |
| 10-01 20:23 | UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) | BUY | 0.4599999986 | $100.00 |
| 10-01 20:22 | UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3599999997 | $150.00 |
| 10-01 20:22 | UFC 332: King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3299999989 | $100.00 |
| 10-01 20:19 | Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 37.5 | BUY | 0.4899999992 | $200.00 |
| 10-01 20:16 | Spread: Steelers (-2.5) | BUY | 0.5299999999 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 21:54 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.5699999996 | $289.16 |
| 09-30 21:53 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | SELL | 0.55 | $264.68 |
| 09-30 21:52 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | BUY | 0.5599999997 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 21:52 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | BUY | 0.5599999993 | $250.00 |
| 09-10 21:18 | Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.11 | $44.00 |
| 09-10 21:17 | Spread: Rams (-3.5) | BUY | 0.5099999999 | $1.5k |