allentang
0xfd77ae69b294c6cf0e23c94a739dd25a4d9582d9
- Realised P&L
- $-3.9k
- Volume
- $56.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.825 | $1.8k | −$245.26 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$170.40at 0.825Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?
- +$120.00at 0.971Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?
- +$53.10at 0.805Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
- +$18.50at 0.600Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
- +$8.10at 0.900Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 13:36 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9403101043 | $2.0k |
| 09-22 03:19 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8195258229 | $800.00 |
| 11-18 16:55 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.6639491234 | $522.37 |
| 11-18 16:53 | Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31? | SELL | 0.4953982645 | $522.37 |
| 11-18 16:18 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.9517773018 | $5.0k |
| 11-18 16:18 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | SELL | 0.994 | $5.0k |
| 11-18 15:10 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | BUY | 0.9598361048 | $4.9k |
| 11-18 14:10 | Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $18.72 |
| 11-18 12:31 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | BUY | 0.891 | $114.04 |
| 11-18 04:39 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | SELL | 0.982 | $294.60 |
| 11-18 04:39 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | SELL | 0.97 | $48.50 |
| 11-18 02:59 | Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $63.00 |
| 11-14 03:32 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? | SELL | 0.020243811 | $33.20 |
| 11-12 15:07 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31? | BUY | 0.971 | $94.21 |
| 11-09 03:33 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? | BUY | 0.07 | $21.00 |